The break-even win rate is the lowest win rate at which a set of trades neither makes nor loses money. It equals 1 ÷ (1 + R), where R is the average win divided by the average loss. With wins twice the size of losses it is 33.3%; with wins equal to losses it is 50%. Above that line the strategy is profitable, below it the strategy loses.
What is the break-even win rate formula?
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + average win ÷ |average loss|) × 100
It comes from setting the average result per trade to zero: win rate × average win must equal loss rate × average loss. Solving for the win rate gives the line above. Use averages from trades you actually closed, not the targets you planned — exits taken early or late change the ratio.
Break-even win rate by reward to risk
| Average win : average loss | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 0.5 : 1 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% |
Worked example
Your closed trades average $150 on winners and −$100 on losers, so R = 1.5. The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ 2.5 = 40%. Your actual win rate is 44%, four points above the line. In R terms each trade is worth 0.44 × 1.5 − 0.56 × 1 = +0.10R on average — a real but thin expectancy.
How do costs and margin of safety change it?
- Costs push the line up. Spread, commission and swap shave every win and add to every loss. Measure the averages after costs, or the line will look lower than it really is.
- Leave a gap. A win rate one or two points above break-even can disappear in a normal losing streak. The wider the gap over many trades, the more confidence the result deserves.
- Exits move it more than entries. Letting winners run lowers the line; cutting them short raises it. Planned risk-reward only sets where the line could be — the realised averages decide where it is.
Break-even win rate in ApeX Journal
ApeX Journal does not show a break-even win rate tile, but the Dashboard has every input for it: the win rate, and in the summary the average win and average loss, all after swap and commission and for the range you pick. Divide the average win by the size of the average loss, put it into the formula above, and compare the result with the win rate on the same screen.
Questions
What win rate do I need with a 1:2 risk-reward?
More than 33.3%, before costs. With every win twice the size of every loss, one win covers two losses, so one win in three breaks even. After spread and commission the real line sits a little higher.
Should I use planned or actual reward to risk?
Actual. A plan of 1:3 that is usually closed at 1:1.2 has a break-even win rate near 45%, not 25%. Planned figures are useful to check whether your exits follow the plan; the line itself comes from what you really closed.
Is the break-even win rate the same as break-even on a stop loss?
No. The break-even win rate is a property of a whole set of trades. Moving a stop to break-even is an action on a single open trade so that it cannot lose; it does change your averages, because those trades end near zero instead of at a full loss or win. Moving a stop to break-even in MT5 →